Since becoming an NFL franchise in 2002, the Houston Texans have faced the Indianapolis Colts twice per season, every season, so this coming Sunday will be 46th time that the two teams have met. The Colts hold a resounding edge in the lifetime series between the two teams, largely based on the decade-long dominance of Peyton Manning over the Texans franchise.
Things have evened out in recent years, with the Texans becoming far more proficient at winning in Indy (six times since 2015), including Week 1 of this season, 29-27. With all of that said, Sunday’s upcoming game at NRG Stadium will be the most important for both teams since the Colts’ playoff win in Houston in January of 2019.
If the Texans win on Sunday, they move to 6-2 on the season and take a two game lead over the Colts PLUS the head to head tie breaker, with a season sweep. If the Colts win, both teams are 5-3, and the division is, all of a sudden, a dogfight. The Texans are favored by five points, and coming off a loss to Green Bay. Since Week 2 of 2023, a loss to the Colts at home, ironically, the Texans are 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread.
Let’s give you some things to watch for on Sunday:
4. No big plays allowed
In the first matchup between these two teams, the Texans were the far better team on far more plays than the Colts were. However, Anthony Richardson hit touchdown plays of 60 and 54 yards, along with another 57 yard toss, to keep the game close. Additionally, the Texans allowed a blocked punt that set up a five yard touchdown drive. Limit the big chunk plays against the Colts, and you’re in good shape, Texans.
3. Bring pressure
The Texans have been among the best teams in the league at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks (2nd, 41.3 percent pressure rate), and lately, it has started to translate more into sacks (4th in the league), not just QB hits and incomplete passes. Richardson does not respond well to pressure, particularly pressure generated by blitzes. Former Colts Denico Autry is in his second game since returning from a PED suspension, and hopefully has the rust shaken off so that he can join Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter in the sack parade.
2. Run the ball
In Week 1, the biggest difference between the two teams was each team’s ability to run the football. Richardson was the best weapon on the ground for the Colts, as Jonathan Taylor was held to 48 yards on 16 carries. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon was the AFC Offensive Player of the Week, with 159 yards on 30 carries. Mixon has been the team’s offensive MVP in the games that he’s played, going over 100 yards in all three games he has started and finished. The Colt shave proven to be a poor run defending team all season long, so Sunday will hopefully be no different.
1. Texans offensive line, protect please
I don’t think I’ve spent as much time on the radio, on my podcast, or around town, discussing one Texans offensive or defensive group more than I have the Texans’ offensive line this past week. They were an abomination against the Packers on Sunday, and nearly got Cc.J. Stroud killed. While you may want to debate how close to metaphorical death Stroud may have been on Sunday, he was undeniably ineffective throwing the football — 10-21 for 86 yards — largely because you can count on one hand how many times he had a clean pocket. With Colts Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner returning from injury, the interior of the Texans offensive line needs to get its act together.
SPREAD: Texans -6
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Colts 17
SEASON RECORD: 4-3 SU, 1-6 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
