The first week of the Houston Astros’ defense of their 2022 world championship is in the books, and while the week finished on an upbeat note, an 8-2 defeat of the Detroit Tigers, the overall record of 3-4 was disappointing. There is nothing to get too worked up about, though. They began 2022 with a 7-9 record, and by the end of May, they were 32-18.
The main problem with this team right now is its lack of depth, caused by injuries to Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley in the everyday lineup, and an injury to Lance McCullers, along with the departure of Justin Verlander in free agency. (Coincidentally, Verlander happens to be on the injured list, as well, in New York with the Mets.) Those issues won’t get resolved any time soon.
In the short term, though, the first week’s worth of games opened a few new wounds, of varying levels of irritation. Here are four early concerns that I have with the Astros (most of which can, admittedly, get soothed within a week or two, max):
4. Dusty Baker’s lineup tinkering
With Brantley and Altuve both out, there are essentially six spots in the lineup that are manned by steady regulars — shortstop, third base, first base, right field, catcher, and wherever Yordan Alvarez plays (left field or DH). After that, Dusty Baker is left to a whimsical decision making process that seems to rely on old school gut and an odd affection for Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon. Dusty needs to let Chas McCormick sink or swim for a month or two as an every day style centerfielder, and I fear Dusty is the last one to know this.
3. Jose Abreu is a GIGANTIC version of Ichiro right now
The Astros signed Abreu early on in free agency last winter to a nice, three-year deal for around $20 million per year. He has correctly been plunked right down into the middle of the lineup as the cleanup hitter. On the surface, his performance looks decent enough so far, with a .360 batting average. However, he only has one extra base hit, a fluky double against the Tigers on Monday, and his expected batting average (xBA, for you nerds out there) is only .257. I wouldn’t be panicking, except Abreu had a career low 15 home runs last season, in 157 games.
2. Starting pitchers after Framber and Javier
With Altuve and Brantley gone for a while, this team will lean heavily on its starting pitching to get back to the level they were at in 2022. Framber Valdez has looked good enough so far (1.50 ERA), even though he hasn’t registered a win yet, and Cristian Javier bounced back from a shaky first start to register his first victory of the season on Wednesday. The three starters after them, though — Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Hunter Brown — all had first starts that extrapolated out in to ERA’s of anywhere from 5.40 to nearly 8.00, and WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) numbers between 1.8 and 2.0. I’m not hitting the panic button yet, but this is a big series against the Twins this weekend, as all three will be pitching.
1. If something happens to Yordan Alvarez or Kyle Tucker right now, they are SCREWED
Right now, the two dominant bats in this lineup, Alvarez and Tucker, have OPS numbers of 1.060 and 1.217, respectively. Yet, the team is still just 3-4. With Bregman off to his trademark slow start, and the other pieces missing right now, the team needs to hire round-the-clock security detail for Alvarez and Tucker and make sure nothing happens to them. An injury to either, and things get SUPER dicey for the Astros.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
