For two teams that only meet each other roughly once every three years, in recent seasons, the Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins have been somewhat inextricably linked, largely through roster transactions, both consummated and aborted.
Back in August 2019, with the “Bill O’Brien as general manager” era of and running, and with O’Brien desperate for a left tackle to protect his franchise quarterbacks blind side, the Dolphins gleefully sent the Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil (along with Kenny Stills and some Day 3 draft chum) for two first round picks, a second round pick, a couple players, and a partridge in a pear tree. Tunsil’s been a fine player for the Texans, but the draft capital was missed.
Then, at the trade deadline in 2021, with Deshaun Watson still technically a Houston Texan (and DEFINITELY a disgruntled one) and facing two dozen lawsuits for sexual misconduct, the Texans and Dolphins had a trade arranged to send Watson to the Dolphins for three first round picks (and more!), Unfortunately, the Dolphins’ requirement that Watsons settle the lawsuits thwarted the deal.
The collapsed Watson trade actually worked out better for both parties. The Texans wound up with a better deal months later from the Browns, and the Dolphins and new head coach Mike McDaniel have rehabbed QB Tua Tagovailoa’s career to where the Dolphins are one of the more exciting teams in football, and they sit at 7-3 right now.
Sunday, these two teams face off, headed in very different directions. The Dolphins are on the rise, and the Texans are likely picking first in the 2023 draft. There is a game to play, though, so let’s examine some angles to watch this Sunday:
4. Holy smokes, the speed!
Let’s make one thing abundantly clear — this is a night-and-day different Dolphin team than the one that beat the Texans 17-9 in Week 9 of the 2021 season. That one was skippered by Jacoby Brissett (in place of an injured Tua Tagovailoa), had Brian Flores as the head coach, and had no Tyreek Hill. Needness to say, massive upgrades have been made across the board, the biggest of which was the acquisition of Hill from the Chiefs for a slew of draft picks. Unlike the Texans previous five opponents, whose goal was to run them into the ground with their rushing game, the Dolphins will try to run the Texans out of the building with their team speed. They will likely succeed.
3. Kenyon Green
The Texans’ rookie class has been very inconsistent as a group this season, and the biggest struggles have been experienced by Green, the rookie first round pick out of Texas A&M. Over the last four games, Green has had to deal with Jeffrey Simmons (Titans), Fletcher Cox (Eagles), Dexter Lawrence (Giants), and Jonathan Allen (Commanders). Now, here comes Lawrence’s college teammate, Christian Wilkins of the Dolphins, who is among the top 20 defensive tackles in football, according to Pro Football Focus. Green’s baptism continues this Sunday, with no end in sight.
2. The future
Honestly, if I am carving out television time this weekend for football, and I really, truly care about the Texans, I am looking at Friday and Saturday, not Sunday. At this point, the 2022 season is more about the 2023 NFL Draft than it is winning games to lose out this season. Right now, the Texans are slated to pick first and seventh in the draft, with the seventh overall pick coming courtesy of the Deshaun Watson trade. If you’re looking for a viewer’s guide for Friday and Saturday this weekend, with a Texans slant, here you go:
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25
11:00 a.m. – Baylor at #23 Texas (Texas RB Bijan Robinson)
2:30 p.m. – NC State at #17 North Carolina (UNC QB Drake Maye ‘24)
6:30pm – Florida at #16 Florida State (Florida QB Anthony RIchardson)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 26
11:00 a.m. – Georgia Tech at #1 Georgia (UGA DT Jalen Carter, UGA CB Kalee Ringo)
11:00 a.m. – #3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State (OHST QB C.J. Stroud)
11:00 a.m. – South Carolina at #8 Clemson (CLEM ED Myles Murphy, CLEM DT Bryan Breese, SCAR CB Cam Smith)
2:00 p.m. – #25 Louisville at Kentucky (KY QB Will Levis)
2:30 p.m. – Auburn at #7 Alabama (BAMA QB Bryce Young, BAMA EDGE Will Anderson, BAMA S Brian Branch,BAMA LB Henry To’o To’o)
3:00 p.m. – Iowa State at #4 TCU (TCU WR Quentin Johnston)
3:00 p.m. – Michigan State at #11 Penn State (PSU OL Olu Fashanu, PSU CB Joey Porter, Jr.)
6:00 p.m. – #5 LSU at Texas A&M (LSU WR Kayshon Boutte)
6:30 p.m. – #15 Notre Dame at #6 USC (ND TE Michael Mayer, ND ED Isaiah Foskey, USC WR Jordan Addison, USC QB Caleb Williams ‘24)
6:30 p.m. – Oklahoma at Texas Tech (TTU EDGE Tyree Wilson)
That is a tasty schedule!
1. Lovie Smith, chess player
So, the big talk all week long has been the likelihood of a change at quarterback for the Texans. Davis Mills has been an abject failure this season, and Lovie Smith essentially promised a change on Monday when he met with the media. He said that he needed to talk to the players before he would disclose any changes to the media. Fair enough. So, on Wednesday, Lovie met for the first time with the media since Monday, and when he was asked about a change at quarterback, Lovie simply said that he wouldn’t speak publicly about who will start under center for the Texans.
He cited his desire to keep the Dolphins from gaining an advantage as his reason. As Smith was trying to play chess with the media, his actual checkers game he was playing was being exposed as multiple reports surfaced that indeed Kyle Allen would be replacing Mills. Lovie’s star hasn’t just crashed since the preseason, it has spontaneously combusted and been swallowed by a black hole. All of a sudden, Lovie finds himself skyrocketing up the odds board for next head coach fired (according to betonline,ag):
Nathaniel Hackett 1/2 Kliff Kingsbury 9/4
Josh McDaniels 6/1
Lovie Smith 15/2
Dennis Allen 16/1
Matt Lafleur 28/1
Dan Campbell 33/1
Seven more games, people. Seven more games. And this one is gonna be ugly.
SPREAD: Texans +11.5
PREDICTION: Dolphins 45, Texans 13
RECORD: 7-2-1 SU, 3-6-1 ATS
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2022.
