After a first five games of the season that has consisted of four “close shave” wins and one blowout loss, the Houston Texans have an opportunity this weekend, up in New England, to beat up on a downtrodden franchise and get a win where the Texans’ starters can relax and laugh a little bit in the fourth quarter.
The Patriots are 1-4 on the season, and currently on a four game losing streak after a Week 1 upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Cincinnati. The Texans are in the rare (EXTREMELY rare) position of being a heavy road favorite, at Gillette Stadium, of all places. In other words, it’s all lining up for the Texans’ first comfortable win of the season, which undoubtedly means they will win on a 63-yard Ka’imi Fairbairn field goal in the final seconds.
We will have our “Four Things to Watch For” on Friday, along with a game prediction, but this game actually has some early storylines bubbling. Let’s take a look:
4. Patriots safety (and team captain Jabrill Peppers was arrested over the weekend
Peppers was arrested for allegedly doing some pretty nasty stuff on Saturday. (NOTE: He didn’t play win Sunday, and was not scheduled to, as he is dealing with an injury.) Here is the account of what allegedly went down:
According to Braintree police, the woman alleged that Peppers hit her, choked her “at least six times,” took off her clothing and put her outside. Police also said Peppers shoved the woman to the ground, shoved her head into a wall and put his hands around her neck to strangle her.
Peppers answered the door shirtless, nodding his head and telling police, “I know what is going on,” according to documents. He was arrested without incident.
The police report also said that officers confiscated a “clear bag containing white powder,” which later tested positive for cocaine.
Neither the Patriots nor the NFL have indicated how they plan to handle Peppers moving forward, but at the very least, this is a distraction for a team that can ill afford any distractions.
3. The Patriots are going to start their franchise rookie QB for the first time
Instead of getting another look at noted Texans killer Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback, the Patriots decided that a 1-4 start was enough to give third overall pick Drake Maye his first bite at the starting QB apple. While there is very little film on Maye, and there is the potential for an ambush effect, Maye is still extremely raw, and I would guess the Texans will deploy a blitz heavy strategy to do to Maye what they did to Caleb Williams in Week 2.
2. Nick Caserio is returning to New England for the first time (in the regular season)
Texans General Manager Nick Caserio spent the first two decades of his NFL life working for Bill Belichick in New England, in a variety of roles, and while the Texans have gone back there for a preseason game, this will be the first game that counts in which Caserio will be traveling back to his old stomping grounds. Sadly, perhaps, this version of the Patriots is in total disrepair compared to the one that Caserio left in 2021. Meanwhile, the Texans are one of the fastest rising teams in football. Probably not a coincidence.
1. Gillette Stadium has been a nightmare for the Texans
How bad of a nightmare? Chew on some of these numbers, if you would:
* The Texans are 3-9 overall vs NE
* TEXANS are 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread at Gillette Stadium
* Here is the Texans’ game log in their team history at New England (Playoffs in BOLD, spread in parentheses)
12.17.2006 – NE 40, HOU 7 (NE -12.5)
12.10.2012 – NE 42, HOU 14 (NE -5.5)
1.13.2013 – NE 41, HOU 28 (NE -9.5)
9.22.2016 – NE 27, HOU 0 (PICK EM)
1.14.2017 – NE 34, HOU 16 (NE -16)
9.24.2017 – NE 36, HOU 33 (NE -13.5)
9.9.2018 – NE 27, HOU 20 (NE -6)
In short, the average margin of victory for the Patriots in these seven wins has been 18 points. That is a brutal history.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
