If you were trying to slog through the rubble of the Houston Texans’ disastrous fever dream of a season in 2021, and find some nuggets of positivity, the first place you would look would probably be the two games against the Tennessee Titans. (If we are being honest, it’s not like 2021 is flush with any other places to look.)
In the two games against the Titans, the Texans took home a Week 11 win, post bye week 22-13 win. At the time, it was their second win of the season, and would wind up being the final win Tyrod Taylor would garner as a Texans’ QB. The Texans needed to win the turnover battle 5-0, but whatever! Then, in Week 18, at home, the Texans fought the Titans tooth and nail, in a 28-25 loss that saw the Texans fight back from a 21-0 deficit to make it a game.
Now, sitting at 1-4-1, the Texans need the Titans to be an elixir for them once again, as the Texans’ season slowly slides into the NFL’s sewer system. The Titans are the usual Mike Vrabel coached outfit they’ve been for five years now — built on the run game, trying to minimize Ryan Tannehill’s mistakes, and winning in a generally ugly fashion. They lead the AFC South at 4-2.
For Sunday’s game, an atypical late kickoff (3:05 p.m.) for a Texans home game, here are a few things to watch for:
4. Turnover battle
As I mentioned above, the main reason that the Texans were able to upset the Titans last season, a season in which the Titians went on to become the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, was because of five turnovers committed by the Titans — four Tannehill picks and a muffed punt. Both teams this season are positive in the turnover margin, with the Titans at +3 and the Texans at +2. Honestly, that’s a little scary that the Texans are winning the turnover margin, but have the second worst record in football. Regardless, the Texans may not need to win the turnover battle by FIVE turnovers to win at home on Sunday, but they need to be at least +2.
3. Davis Mills’ weapons
For any criticism one might levy toward Davis Mills in his second year in the league, as he tries to secure his spot as the long term answer at QB for this team, it should be noted that he is operating with weapons that are certainly below average, by NFL standards. Nico Collins has been his best receiver, and he is out with a groin injury suffered last Sunday. Brandin Cooks has been underwhelming, and is now the subject of trade rumors. The tight ends, aside from a few plays made by Jordan Akins over the last month, have been a non factor. Rookie RB Dameon Pierce is the only skill player who would start on most good teams around the league. They’re going to need offense from somewhere this Sunday, aside from Pierce, but who has the capability to step up?
2. Jeffrey Simmons
Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Titans sport the best defensive player playing in this game. Since arriving in the league in 2019, Simmons has been a force on the interior, and a big reason why the Titans have the third best rushing defense in the league, according to the DVOA metric produced by Football Outsiders. According to Pro Football Focus, Simmons has been an elite run defender (89.1 PFF score) and a very good pass rusher from the interior (75.2 PFF score). Rookie guard Kenyon Green is going to have his hands full in this one.
1. Derrick Henry
This is an easy one — Henry is the player to watch in this game, whether you are a fan of the Texans, Titans, or just football in general. The Texans have the worst run defense in the league, as measured by yards per game (164.7 per game). They also give up 5.2 yards per carry. This season, Jonathan Taylor (161 yards rushing), the entire Bears backfield (281 yards rushing), and Josh Jacobs (143 yards) have all had sizzle reel games against the Texans. Henry has five career games with over 200 yards rushing — three of them have come against the Texans. This is a great week for Derrick Henry fantasy owners!
SPREAD: Texans +3.5
PREDICTION: Titans 20, Texans 17
SEASON RECORD: 3-2-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2022.
