Last week was a big week for NFL Draft speculation and the never ending exercise of reading into every minute detail of the quarterback evaluation process, for last week included the Pro Days for three of the top four prospects — Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, and Kentucky’s Will Levis. Anthony Richardson of Florida had his Pro Day Thursday of this week.
For now, it appears that Stroud and Young have elevated above the other two, and should be the top two selections in next month’s draft. The Carolina Panthers, by virtue of a trade with Chicago, select first, and your Houston Texans select second. The betting odds right now have the Panthers taking Stroud, and if that happens, the Texans will sprint to the podium with Young as their pick.
While it’s every young football player’s dream to be the first selection in the NFL Draft, it’s also crucial, especially at the quarterback position, to be selected into a situation where you’re best set up to succeed. Carolina was a better football team than the Texans last season, finishing 7-10 to the Texans’ wretched 3-13-1 record, but ar they a better landing spot for a young quarterback?
I think there are four reasons why the quarterback who ends up with the Texans will be better off then the one selected by the Panthers. Here you go:
4. The Texans have more draft capital to improve the team
While it’s nice to be super wanted, the problem with going to a team that trades up to get you, as a quarterback, is that they are gutting their resources to actually improve the team. The Panthers gave up two additional second round picks and next year’s first round pick (plus their best receiver) to move up eight spots. (Hope winning those few extra games was worth it!) The Texans, on the other hand, have 12 picks in this draft, including the 12th overall pick, plus they have two first round picks next year. The Texans are set up to rebuild quickly, if they get the picks right.
3. I’d buy stock in DeMeco Ryans over Frank Reich as my head coach
Both Ryans and Reich were available for every team (five, total) looking for a new head coach this past hiring cycle. Ryans was the one candidate that EVERY team wanted to interview. In the end, he only interviewed with Denver and the Texans, before cutting things off with the other three teams, including Carolina. Reich is on his second stretch as a head coach, after winning just one playoff game in five seasons in Indianapolis. In other words, Carolina has a high level retread, and the Texans have the brightest young mind in football. Advantage, Texans.
2. Case Keenum seems like a better veteran mentor than Andy Dalton
Both Carolina and Houston made veteran quarterback signings during the first week of free agency. Chances are, both Andy Dalton (Carolina) and Case Keenum (Houston) knew going in that there is a good chance they would be backing up a bonus baby, highly selected rookie quarterback. If I’m Stroud or Young, I feel like there is more I can learn from Keenum’s seven city journey where he started out undrafted, and along the way was everything from a third stringer to a highly paid starter., than I can from Dalton’s journey of being a second round pick who’s been a starter virtually his whole career. Plus, Case is just cooler.
1. Houston just locked down the best left tackle in football through 2026
If I am a rookie quarterback, my main concern as a young player would be getting murdered by someone much bigger (or in the case of Bryce Young, Much, MUCH bigger) than me on my blind side. In Houston, whatever rookie is drafted, will have the best pass protecting left tackle in the sport protecting him, for at least four more seasons, as Laremy Tunsil signed a contract extension last week that makes him the highest paid offensive lineman in football. I don’t know exactly what Carolina’s solution is, but I just know it’s not Laremy Tunsil. Checkmate.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
