For decades, at the Division 1-A level, college football viewed the word “playoff” as a four letter word. For damn near the entire 20th century, the national champion was voted on by sportswriters and coaches, not decided on the field. Finally, in the mid ’90s, the powers that be agreed to a format that gave us a two-team title game. Getting to that stage was monumental.
From there, it took another two decades to get a four team playoff, and from there another decade to expand to a 12-team playoff. So things were speeding up and advancing, to a degree. Well, the training wheels are off now. After just one season with a 12-team playoff, it appears we are on the cusp of going to 16 teams in a matter of months, not years. It won’t be this fall, but it could be as early as next year.
This whole sequence, the last 30 years leading into now, is like your favorite teetotaling grandparent all of a sudden going on cocaine binges. This thing sped up FAST! The latest indicator of change coming was this press conference with SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, where he spent four minutes making the case that the SEC, the sport’s premier conference, is in it for the sport’s “greater good,” and not ready to lead a split that might lead the SEC and the Big Ten to doing their own playoff.
One thing appears daily certain — if there is expansion to a 16 team playoff, there will likely be preferential treatment for the SEC and the Big Ten, who are very clearly the two deepest conferences in the sport right now. So let’s kick this around for a minute. What does an expanded playoff look like?
How would the field be determined in a 16-team playoff?
Let’s start with the makeup of the field. Whereas the current 12 team field is simply the top five conference champions and seven at large bids, the 16 team playoff would have more guarantees built on for the power conferences. Specifically, this:
Four (4) automatic bids for the SEC
Four (4) automatic bids for the BIG TEN
Two (2) automatic bids for the ACC
Two (2) automatic bids for the BIG XII
One (1) automatic bid for the highest ranked conference champ in the Group of Five
Three (3) at large bids
The five highest ranked conference champions would get automatic bids, and the remainder of the seeding and bid invitations would be determined by the selection committee’s rankings. There is talk of giving the top two seeds a double bye, and the bottom four teams having a mini play in to get into the second round.
Wait a second, kids could play HOW MANY games?
With a twelve game regular season, plus a conference title game, there’s a chance that kids on a team seeded lower than second overall (and thus a double bye) could play up to 17 games, if they made the title game. That’s essentially the length of an NFL regular season. This would be far more controversial if the players were not getting NIL money.
How does future realignment play into all of this?
If we’ve learned one thing, it’s that even when you think there won’t be any more conference realignment, there will be conference realignment. That said, with the Power Four conferences all at 14 teams or more, it seems like things have settled down. If anything, this 16 team playoff and its format probably quell any more realignment for the time being. The best teams in the ACC and Big XII probably have easier access in this format than they would in leaving and becoming the sixth or seventh best team in the SEC or Big Ten.
Where does Notre Dame fit into this landscape?
As one of the few remaining independents in college football, Notre Dame gets treated like a Power Four team without being tied to one of the conferences. This format would actually benefit Notre Dame even more than the one in which they made the title game last season, as they are now eligible for a bye under this format. Under the format last season, only conference champions could get a first round bye. In short, Notre Dame fits in just fine.
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