After months of attack ads, hundreds of blockwalks and millions of text messages, midterm Election Day arrives tomorrow, and some are describing it as the Super Bowl for politicos, albeit one where the final score might not be available until the next day.
On Tuesday, November 3, Texans will elect a governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and a member of the U.S. Senate. Dozens of district judge races will also be decided along with a referendum on marijuana and no-knock warrants in the City of Houston, a $1.63 billion bond package in Cypress-Fairbanks ISD and a mandate on whether to disable Flock cameras in League City.
Harris County will choose its county judge and two commissioners, and Fort Bend County will select its top executive, district attorney and Precinct 4 commissioner.
And while Harris and Fort Bend counties are expected to vote blue, polling suggests that the statewide races could be extremely close. Michael Emerson, religion and public policy program director at Rice University’s Baker Institute, says those interested in the results will be in for a long night.
“No matter what the results are, it could be messy,” Emerson says. “So many of the elections look like they’re going to be really close. We’re not going to know the night of. There’s going to be calls for recounts. That’s going to invite both sides to say that there’s fraud going on and people were prevented from voting and ballots were thrown away. I do worry about that.”
A few isolated voter intimidation claims have already been made during Harris County’s 12-day early voting period, and election officials say Tuesday is the day they expect to see the most chaos. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. but anyone already in line at the cutoff time will be permitted to vote.
Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth confirmed last week that the U.S. Department of Justice is sending federal election monitors to Harris County on Election Day to ensure compliance with federal voting rights laws, including provisions of the Voting Rights Act that protect voters from discrimination.
The Texas Attorney General’s Office sued Hudspeth last week, claiming that a series of “Get Out the Vote” social media ads targeted Black and brown voters while ignoring other demographics. Hudspeth responded, saying the clerk’s office “does not engage in political rhetoric, nor do we seek to influence how any individual votes for a candidate or a ballot measure.”
She also removed the Meta audience subsets on Facebook and Instagram that the AG’s office claimed were targeting potential voters by using interest tags like “African-American history” and “Latin dance.”
It’s fair to say that not only are the eyes of the Texas government on Harris County, but so are the eyes of President Donald Trump’s DOJ. Hudspeth said in a statement last week that election monitoring has occurred under both Republican and Democratic administrations and is not unusual.
“Our responsibility remains the same: to conduct a secure, transparent, and lawful election while ensuring every eligible voter can cast their ballot without interference,” she said in a statement.
The clerk advised that DOJ monitors are expected to be dressed in plain clothes and may be stationed outside the 100-foot electioneering boundary at voting locations.
“They may approach voters as they exit to ask about their voting experience,” Hudspeth said. “Voters are not required to speak with monitors, and their participation in any conversation is entirely voluntary.”
Voters can call Harris County’s election hotline at 713-755-6965 to report complaints or ask questions.
A record number of early voters turned out not only in Harris County but across the state, where roughly one in four registered voters have already cast ballots. Hudspeth reported that more than a million residents– 1,081,010 to be exact — voted early locally, including those who used mail-in ballots.
That’s about 39.37 percent of Harris County’s 2.7 million registered voters, so there are many who still need to go to the polls on Election Day.
The Harris Votes website and smartphone application offer sample ballots and a list of the 620 vote centers with real-time wait estimates. Harris Votes is also the best place to check for results on election night, but keep in mind that the site only posts Harris County results, not the statewide totals. Houston’s forecast calls for a high of 79 degrees with a 75 percent chance of rain on Tuesday, but of course that’s subject to change.
Some ballots are more than 100 pages long, but there are several key races worth watching.
Statewide
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll shows that Harris County voters heavily favor Democrats in the statewide and local races. However, a Texas Southern University survey that came out last week polled 2,000 likely voters across the state and found that many of the races are neck and neck.
In the TSU poll, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 2 percentage points. Fox News has the candidates at 49 percent each, while RealClear Polling shows Talarico with 48.6 percent and Paxton with 46.5 percent. Experts have suggested that if a statewide seat is to flip blue after a 30-year GOP stronghold, it will likely be the U.S. Senate seat.
That’s because Paxton has a lot of baggage with corruption and adultery allegations, and he frankly isn’t a good campaigner, according to Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist who conducted the TSU poll with professor Michael Adams. Talarico’s willingness to embrace people of faiths other than Christianity and diverse political ideologies appeals to some moderates and Paxton-haters but is a dealbreaker for far-right Republicans.
Billionaire entrepreneur and Donald Trump ally Elon Musk has donated $168 million to political action committees that are supporting Paxton’s campaign, including the Senate Leadership Fund and Lone Star Liberty PAC.
Talarico’s largest donor, at $16.5 million, is Reid Hoffman, the founder of professional networking site LinkedIn. Entrepreneur and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg chipped in $2.5 million, and the Senate Majority PAC and Government That Works PAC contributed $13.25 million and $3.75 million, respectively.
Musk also funneled about $5.5 million to Gov. Greg Abbott in his re-election bid for an unprecedented fourth term. Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 3 percentage points, according to the TSU poll.
The poll shows that in the Texas Lieutenant Governor election, Republican Dan Patrick leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin by 4 percentage points.
The TSU poll shows that 47 percent of Texans are picking Republican Bo French for railroad commissioner over 46 percent for Democrat Jon Rosenthal. This race has become significantly more competitive since French, the former Tarrant County Republican Party chair, made racist comments last month about South Asian students being accepted into the University of Texas, implying that they were stealing spots from “Americans,” even though several of the students he targeted later said they were born in the United States.
French’s comments were nothing new. He’s known for using racial slurs and anti-Semitic rhetoric, and he’s called for the mass deportation of Muslims. Members of his own party, including Abbott and Patrick, have denounced his comments, and GOP strategist Karl Rove said he’d be voting for Rosenthal in the railroad commissioner race.
In the Texas Attorney General election, Republican Mayes Middleton (49 percent) leads Democrat Nathan Johnson (45 percent) by 4 percentage points, according to the TSU poll. The winner will replace Paxton as AG, and “MAGA Mayes” has indicated he will continue Paxton’s policy of suing midwives who provide reproductive healthcare and public schools that don’t want to post religious texts; Johnson says he’ll sue the federal government.
County Judge Races
Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo is not seeking a third term, so whoever is elected Tuesday will be new to the position. On the ballot are former Houston City Council member Letitia Plummer, a Democrat, and former Harris County treasurer Orlando Sanchez.
The Hobby School poll shows that close to half of Harris County voters don’t know enough about the candidates to have an opinion, but Plummer has a comfortable lead, 47 percent to 40 percent.
Priority issues to Harris County voters in the county judge’s race include crime and public safety, property taxes and voting rights, according to the poll.
Democratic county commissioners Lesley Briones and Adrian Garcia are also on the ballot seeking re-election, challenged by Republicans Steve Radack, a former commissioner, and Richard Vega, respectively. According to the Hobby School poll, Briones has an 8-percentage-point lead and Garcia is up by 12 percentage points.
The top executive position in Fort Bend County is also up for grabs, with Dexter McCoy and Daniel Wong vying for the seat vacated by KP George, who was convicted of felony money laundering earlier this year and lost the primary to Wong.
A TSU poll released earlier this month shows McCoy, the current Precinct 4 commissioner, with a 9-percentage-point lead over Wong, who was appointed in April to serve as interim county judge.
Many Democrats have questioned whether Wong is legally serving as interim judge, maintaining that his appointment expired in June. McCoy and fellow Democrat Commissioner Grady Prestage have boycotted commissioners court meetings for more than four months, saying the proceedings are illegal. They returned for one meeting in September to vote on the budget and tax rate and also showed up for a special meeting on tax incentives for Tesla because Wong abstained from that meeting, citing a conflict of interest because of his business ties to the company.
Fort Bend County voters will also decide this week on a district attorney. Incumbent Democrat Brian Middleton is seeking a third term and facing longtime prosecutor and Sugar Land Municipal Court Judge Shawn McDonald.
Precinct 4 voters will decide between small business owner April Jones, a Democrat, and business owner and Fort Bend County Municipal Utility District #50 vice president Ken Mathews to fill the commissioner’s seat vacated by McCoy.
Houston Referendum on Marijuana Enforcement
Buried at the bottom of the ballot for those who live within the Houston city limits is a proposition to decriminalize possession of small amounts of marijuana and eliminate the Houston Police Department’s ability to serve “no-knock” warrants.
The propositions are combined as one measure and were placed on the ballot by Ground Game Texas via petition. The item is expected to pass but not make a drastic change in how HPD already operates. Mayor John Whitmire has said that possession of less than 2 ounces of weed is already a low priority for law enforcement, and officers don’t enter homes unannounced to serve warrants.
Ground Game Texas officials have pursued marijuana decriminalization ballot measures since 2021 and successfully passed them in Austin, Bastrop, Dallas, Denton, Elgin, Harker Heights, Killeen, Lockhart and San Marcos.
“We’ve been doing this for years, prior to it becoming as polarizing as it is right now,” Ground Game Texas board member Angel Carroll told the Houston Press in August. “We started this work in a more hostile environment when it comes to marijuana decriminalization. Now we’re seeing more people openly be like, ‘Yeah, we want this,’ especially veterans who are having access to products taken away.”
Cy-Fair ISD Bond Issue
Residents within the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD boundaries will get to decide on a 12-cent Voter-Approved Tax Rate Election and a $1.63 billion bond package.
Proposition A (VATRE) would cover teacher and staff compensation, campus safety personnel, instructional materials, programs and transportation.
Advocates for the bond vary on which propositions they like, acknowledging that it’s a tough ask for people to approve almost $61 million for athletic field upgrades. Some supporters say they’ll just vote for the VATRE and not the individual bond propositions, emphasizing that the tax hike could fund one-time teacher stipends and go toward reinstating laid-off librarians.
School districts have struggled in recent years with getting bonds to pass, and Cy-Fair ISD faced a $67.4 million budget deficit earlier this year, which is an argument for some that the bonds are needed to make upgrades that otherwise couldn’t be funded. Critics, however, say the district should have been more fiscally responsible. A VATRE would generate about $103 million.
Proposition B (building bond, $1.3 billion) would fund essential facility renovations, modernize technology and cybersecurity frameworks and allow for the acquisition of new school buses with three-point seat belts required by the state.
Proposition C (technology bond, $256 million) would replace or update instructional technology devices and classroom displays.
Proposition D (athletic bond, $60.8 million) would pay for new artificial turf, resurfacing of competition tracks and updating stadium scoreboards.
Proposition E (swimming pools bond, $20.1 million) would fund the replacement of water filtration pumps and re-plastering of middle and high school pools.
League City Flock Cameras
While automated license plate readers have drawn the ire of residents in Harris County and surrounding jurisdictions, League City in Galveston County is the first in the area to actually put the issue on a ballot.
If the measure is approved by voters Tuesday, the city council will order all Flock Safety cameras to be disabled within 72 hours of the election results being certified.
