Week 1 of the 2019 NFL gambling season is on the books, and it went about as well as could be expected, with a nice 5-1 ATS start to the year. Beyond that, in the "everything was falling right for me on Sunday" category, not only did Kyler Murray's feverish comeback against the Lions on Sunday allow me to cash my Cardinals +2.5 ticket, but the game ending in a tie on the scoreboard was a double win for my two season win total UNDER bets on the Lions and Cards.
Just a spectacular day all the way around! So let's go get some more of that sweet, sweet gambling cheddar, shall we? Here are this week's best bets...
STEELERS -4 over Seahawks
The Steelers got thumped by 30 points in New England on Sunday night, so that's almost an immediate "must play" — when good teams lose by four or more touchdowns in a given week, back them the next week. Pride is a powerful thing. Also, the Seahawks are traveling across the country to play a game that kicks off at 10 a.m. as far as their body clocks know, and they did not look very good in their opener, a 21-20 squeaker over the hapless Bengals. The Steelers get right in this spot.
Bills -1.5 over GIANTS
After a 16-point comeback win against the Jets in the opening week, the Bills are in the strange spot of coming back to play another road game in the same stadium, this time against the Giants, so I guess, in a weird way, the Bills are on the cusp of taking the Tri-State Area championship with a win. The Saints look like a team that will be changing quarterbacks by October, rebuild in full swing. Meanwhile, my feelings on the Bills being a sneaky playoff contender remain unchanged. I think the combination of the Bills' pass rush and Bills QB Josh Allen protecting the football should be enough to get the win here.
Vikings/PACKERS OVER 44
With the offensive weapons on both sides of this rivalry, the total on this game should be three or four points higher, in my opinion. The recency of the Packers putting up just ten points in their opener, and the Vikings throwing just ten passes in their season opening win is what's keeping this total relatively low. This feels like a game in the low 50s.
RAIDERS +7 over Chiefs
I'm a big believer in backing teams pulling off upsets at home one week, and then coming back the next week as an underdog at home. That's the Raiders, who appear to be a team with a gigantic weight lifted off their collective shoulders with Antonio Brown off their ticket. The Chiefs are going to be without Tyreek Hill, who is out for the next month or so with a shoulder injury. This is a major adjustment for them. I think the Raiders have enough firepower, against a suspect Chiefs defense, to keep the game within reach.
RAMS -2.5 over Saints
The one emotional angle everyone's been running with on this game is the Saints seeking "revenge" because of the missed pass interference call in last year's NFC title game. I guess my counter would be "Hey, aren't the Rams kind of sick of hearing that the only reason they made the Super Bowl was because of the refs?" Shouldn't the Rams have a decent sized chip on THEIR shoulder, too? I think you're getting the better team for under a field goal spread at home. Love the Rams in this spot.
Eagles/FALCONS OVER 52
I can ignore the Falcons' horrible Week 1 offensive output in Minnesota. I think, at home in Week 2, against a Philly defense with some issues in the secondary, the Falcons will bounce back. I also think they will give up a ton of points to Carson Wentz and the Eagles. This will be a game played in the 60's. Take the OVER.
LAST WEEK: 5-1
SEASON NFL ATS RECORD: 5-1
Keep the Houston Press Free... Since we started the Houston Press, it has been defined as the free, independent voice of Houston, and we would like to keep it that way. Offering our readers free access to incisive coverage of local news, food and culture. Producing stories on everything from political scandals to the hottest new bands, with gutsy reporting, stylish writing, and staffers who've won everything from the Society of Professional Journalists' Sigma Delta Chi feature-writing award to the Casey Medal for Meritorious Journalism. But with local journalism's existence under siege and advertising revenue setbacks having a larger impact, it is important now more than ever for us to rally support behind funding our local journalism. You can help by participating in our "I Support" membership program, allowing us to keep covering Houston with no paywalls.