A year ago, the Texans were a day away from hiring DeMeco Ryans as their head coach, and while things felt decidedly better with Ryans coming in than it had during any head coach in recent history, Bill O'Brien included, the Texans were still considered the longest shot on the board to win a Super Bowl, with odds anywhere from 200/1 to 500/1, depending on the outlet.
My, what a difference twelve months can make. On the heels of a division title and a playoff win over the Cleveland Browns (and blowout loss to Baltimore in the divisional round), the markets are far more bullish on the Houston Texans:
Okay, now this is fun, right? From the literal bottom of the NFL to eighth on the odds board in less than a calendar year. You go, DeMeco! Now, before we start planning a parade route through downtown for next February, I will provide a few sobering reminders of the last three times we've come off a season where the Texans lost in the divisional round of the playoffs — after 2012, after 2016, and after 2019.🚨 2025 SUPERBOWL ODDS HAVE DROPPED 🚨 pic.twitter.com/iTOsFvxKyL
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 25, 2024
The off-seasons following 2012, 2016, and 2019 all saw one BIG move in response to the playoff loss
In a vacuum, if we believe in patterns, that previous sentence should excite Texans fans, many of whom are thirsty for Nick Caserio to show the same bravado in free agency this spring that he showed in the draft last year, moving up for Will Anderson. However, be careful what you wish for. Following 2012, in March 2013, the Texans signed future Hall of Fame safety Ed Reed to import some leadership and get the team over the hump. Reed played just a few games after offseason hip surgery, and trashed the coaching staff on the way out after being cut midseason.
In early 2017, the Texans traded Brock Osweiler after one wretched season with him, and then a couple months later, drafted Deshaun Watson. This move actually worked out, until... well, until it didn't. Finally, following 2019, the Texans inexplicably let Bill O'Brien run the team into the ground, most notably trading DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson and a second round pick. Not all big moves are good moves.
2012, 2016, and 2019 were then all followed by three of the worst seasons in team history
So it's probably not a huge surprise that the team backslid the next year in all three cases. However, even the most miserable pessimist could not have imagined just how far. In 2013, the Texans won their first two games, then lost 14 straight to finish 2-14. In 2017, the team was actually very competitive with Watson doing wonderful things as a rookie, but he tore his ACL in early November, and the team finished 4-12. Finally, in 2020, the Texans started the season 0-4, and went on to finish 4-12 again. These were three of the worst seasons in franchise history.
As a result, ultimately, in 2013, 2017, and 2020, there was one big name terminated
In 2013, Gary Kubiak was fired with three games left in the season, giving way to interim head coach Wade Phillips. This would work out great for Kubiak, who would win a Lombardi Trophy two years later as the head coach of the Denver Broncos. In 2017, Bill O'Brien won his power struggle with general manager Rick Smith, who technically was not fired, but instead left the organization to tend to his late wife, Tiffany, who was suffering from cancer at the time. Finally, in 2020, Bill O'Brien was fired four games into the season, making Romeo Crennel the interim head coach and Jack Easterby the interim GM. Those were REALLY dark times that we hope never to repeat.
Again, Texan fans, be excited. Times are good. Barring injuries, this should be a contender for years to come. Nothing is guaranteed, though.
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