The trade was panned around the league as a disaster for the Texans (proven true) and steal for the Cardinals (largely true, as well). The salt in the wound for Texan fans was, on the very same day, the Vikings traded receiver Stefon Diggs, a good but not-as-good-as-Hopkins receiver, for a first round pick and several other picks.
The Diggs trade was the capper on what was already one of the darkest days in Texans history. It was the football gods trolling all of us. Well, the gods have come around on the Texans, and in the ultimate ironic twist, almost four years to the week after the Hopkins and Diggs 2020 trades, the Texans pilfered Diggs from the Bills for a trade package whose central piece was, wait for it, a SECOND ROUND PICK. (No David Johnson, though. No clue where that guy is.)
Indeed, the Texans' offseason of explosive ascension to contender status continued on Wednesday afternoon as the team acquired Diggs from the Bills in exchange for the 2025 second round pick the Texans acquired from the Vikings in a trade a couple weeks ago. The Texans also will receive a sixth round pick in this year's draft and a 5th round pick in 2025.
A few thoughts on this massive turn of events:
This is just phenomenal work by Texans GM Nick Caserio
When you take the two trades — the trade with the Vikings to move out of the first round and pick up an extra second round pick, and this trade for Diggs — and blend them as one big transaction, then the Texans basically picked up Stefon Diggs (and admittedly, his massive contract, too) in exchange for moving down the 2024 draft from 23rd overall to 42nd overall. In the process, they actually INCREASED their Day 3 draft capital this season AND next season. All of this combined makes this a very low risk move. The worst thing the Texans would lose out on, if the deal failed, was a bunch of cap space this season. Diggs' contract going forward has very few guarantees after this season.
What's the effect on the Texans' Super Bowl odds?
Good question! Let's take a look, via Bet Online:
Super Bowl Notes:
o Houston went from 22/1 to 10/1 after the trade
o Buffalo went from 12/1 to 16/1 after the trade
· AFC Conference Notes:
o Houston went from 11/1 to 11/2 after the trade
o Buffalo went from 7/1 to 9/1 after the trade
· Divisional Notes:
o Houston went from +150 (3/2) to win the division to -110 (10/11). They remain the favorite.
o Buffalo went from +130 (130/1) to win the division to +160 (8/5). They remain the favorite.
Indeed, the Texans, who a year ago at this time were last on the odds board to win the Super Bowl, are now tied for THIRD overall on the board at 10/1, tied with the team that destroyed them in the playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens.
What's the potential downside to this deal?
Look, let's be honest. Even while teams have gotten smarter about overpaying with too much draft capital in trades, this is an extraordinarily low amount to have to give up for a perennial Pro bowler like Diggs. In listening in on Buffalo radio shortly after the trade was made, the general sentiment seemed to be "Good riddance." In other words, Diggs can be a handful behind the scenes. So I suppose the worst case scenario is that Diggs doesn't meld into the Ryans-Stroud culture, and the Texans punt on him. The main loss, at that point, would be more the dollars sunk into him than the draft capital, which again, is negligible. All in all, this is a gamble well worth taking.
Hey, how about a season opener against the Bills?
The Houston Texans' home opponents this season are Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore, and their three divisional foes. If you want the Texans to open the season at home, which I do, then is there a sexier home opponent than the Bills in a Diggs revenge game? I say not!
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